CDC Cruise Rules May Be Just Days Away; Volunteer Sailings Next?

“We’re just literally waiting,” said Michael Bayley, president and CEO of Royal Caribbean International, of technical regulations expected from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that will provide a clear path for cruise lines to operate again in the U.S.

Having issued the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships in late October, the CDC has yet to release referenced technical regulations which will define a return to service.

Those regulations now may just around the corner, according to Bayley, who said it could be coming in days, speaking on Royal Caribbean’s year-end and fourth quarter business update call on Monday morning. 

The next step is then trial sailings with volunteers cruising, Bayley noted, adding the company had seen some 250,000 volunteer sign-ups. 

Bayley noted the communication and dialogue between the industry and the CDC have been productive, and it has been a relatively open process.

Royal Caribbean Shares Soar As Bookings Rise On Vaccination News

Port of the Bahamas

by Praveen Paramasivam  (Reuters) – Royal Caribbean Group said on Monday it was seeing an uptick in future bookings, following a disastrous year for the cruise operator, as travel enthusiasts look to sail again at a time governments globally have started mass vaccinations.

The company’s shares, down 44% last year, soared 9% in morning trading (and is up 24% in the past five trading days), as Royal Caribbean said it recorded a 30% increase in new bookings since the beginning of the year when compared to November and December.

Analysts have also tipped Royal Caribbean and its peers Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd to resume voyages gradually in the back half of this year, after the pandemic-triggered months-long halt.

“Now after 11 months of the pandemic, I think we all know that COVID fatigue is real. People are clamouring for the opportunity to have experience outside their homes,” Chief Executive Officer Richard Fain said on an earnings call.

Royal Caribbean said bookings for the first half of 2022 were within historical ranges and at higher prices, with some on Reddit and Twitter saying they were itching to go on cruises again.

However, the operator of “Symphony of the Seas” cruise posted a net attributable loss of $1.37 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, taking its annual loss to $5.8 billion.

Royal Caribbean’s total revenue for the quarter was $34.1 million, compared with analysts’ estimates of $35.6 million, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

On an adjusted basis, the company lost $5.02 per share. Analysts had expected a loss of $5.20.

Miami-based Royal Caribbean forecast a net loss for its first quarter and the 2021 fiscal year.

Royal Caribbean Business Update Call Preview: What Matters

Royal Caribbean Group has scheduled a business update call for investors, as well as report 2020 fourth quarter and 2020 full-year earnings, on Monday, Feb. 22.

It’s a key call for the investment community, with the company approaching the one-year mark without ships in service from U.S. ports, and only a small percentage of its fleet operating, with the Quantum of the Seas sailing from Singapore while TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises have seen smaller restarts.

Company executives are expected to provide a 15 to 25-minute presentation and then will open it up to question from financial analysts. 

What to Listen For:

  • Restart: When will ships actually start sailing in mass in the United States and Europe? Company executives will be pressed to answer or provide a realistic timeline. Previous remarks about restarting in 2020 did not pan out. 
  • CDC: Will company executives provide an update regarding ongoing discussions with the CDC and its Conditional Sailing Order. Since being issued in late October there have been no further public updates nor promised technical regulations. 
  • Biden Administration: After the industry had high-profile meetings with Vice President Mike Pence in 2020, as well as a teleconference in October, what has been the relationship with the new U.S. administration so far with President Joe Biden in office?
  • Azamara: Company executives will need to comment on the sale of Azamara to a private equity company. Will other sales of ships or brands follow?
  • Alaska: How will the Canada cruise ship ban impact the Alaska season and is the idea of a waiver to operate without calling on a foreign port realistic?
  • Occupancy: When the ships do restart, what occupancy will they sail at, and what occupancy do they need to sail at to generate positive earnings?
  • Deployment: Could 2021 and possibly 2022 lead to a seismic shift in deployment as cruise lines stay even closer to home and embrace short cruises?
  • Cash Burn: Royal Caribbean Group opted not to provide an exact cash burn figure in its last earnings release, but offered a range that averaged out to $270 million a month. Investors will be looking for an update.
  • Startup Costs: Among Wall Streets, key concerns will be the startup costs per vessel as well as the timeline to get a vessel ready to cruise with guests.
  • Lay Up: Will the company elaborate on further cold lay-up scenarios for the vessels that may return to service last?