Royal Caribbean Business Update Call Preview: What Matters

Royal Caribbean Group has scheduled a business update call for investors, as well as report 2020 fourth quarter and 2020 full-year earnings, on Monday, Feb. 22.

It’s a key call for the investment community, with the company approaching the one-year mark without ships in service from U.S. ports, and only a small percentage of its fleet operating, with the Quantum of the Seas sailing from Singapore while TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises have seen smaller restarts.

Company executives are expected to provide a 15 to 25-minute presentation and then will open it up to question from financial analysts. 

What to Listen For:

  • Restart: When will ships actually start sailing in mass in the United States and Europe? Company executives will be pressed to answer or provide a realistic timeline. Previous remarks about restarting in 2020 did not pan out. 
  • CDC: Will company executives provide an update regarding ongoing discussions with the CDC and its Conditional Sailing Order. Since being issued in late October there have been no further public updates nor promised technical regulations. 
  • Biden Administration: After the industry had high-profile meetings with Vice President Mike Pence in 2020, as well as a teleconference in October, what has been the relationship with the new U.S. administration so far with President Joe Biden in office?
  • Azamara: Company executives will need to comment on the sale of Azamara to a private equity company. Will other sales of ships or brands follow?
  • Alaska: How will the Canada cruise ship ban impact the Alaska season and is the idea of a waiver to operate without calling on a foreign port realistic?
  • Occupancy: When the ships do restart, what occupancy will they sail at, and what occupancy do they need to sail at to generate positive earnings?
  • Deployment: Could 2021 and possibly 2022 lead to a seismic shift in deployment as cruise lines stay even closer to home and embrace short cruises?
  • Cash Burn: Royal Caribbean Group opted not to provide an exact cash burn figure in its last earnings release, but offered a range that averaged out to $270 million a month. Investors will be looking for an update.
  • Startup Costs: Among Wall Streets, key concerns will be the startup costs per vessel as well as the timeline to get a vessel ready to cruise with guests.
  • Lay Up: Will the company elaborate on further cold lay-up scenarios for the vessels that may return to service last? 

Jaxport Aims for More Homeports in 2021

Jaxport cruise terminal 

The future is homeports, according to Fred Wong, chief operations officer at Jaxport (Jacksonville Port Authority). At least for the ports that are in the cruise business trying to mend after the blow of the pandemic.

“We are aggressively going out to the market to see if we can get additional homeports,” Wong told Cruise Industry News.

Wong spoke about Jaxport’s plans in the next five to 10 years. But while CDC’s new regulations have to stay in place, the port will be making the most of being in the port of call market.

“We have so much to offer … 22 miles of beaches, world-class golf, deep-sea fishing, historical sites in St. Augustine. So, we are most definitely taking a different approach to not only being a home port of call, which we are fully capable of being but being a more aggressive port of call as well, being in the intermittent of their service lines,” he said.

“Cruise vessels’ itineraries are forced to have seven days or less, and the CDC has the ability to shorten it even more. There’s no way that these vessels can get down to their predestined itineraries as they used to with their 11- and 14-day runs,” Wong explained.

Hit Hard

Norwegian Sky visiting Jaxport

Unlike some other ports that had zero cruise ships during the pandemic, Jaxport played host to several Norwegian Cruise Lines ships, such as the Norwegian Sky, the Norwegian Pearl, and the Norwegian Sun.

“They had to repatriate their crew, and of course, at Jacksonville Port Authority, we stepped in and housed about three to four of their Panamax vessels here for a couple of months – the duration for the repatriation of crews,” Wong said.

The pandemic did affect Jaxport, where about eight per cent of revenues and volumes are cruise. But doing breakbulk and military operations helped the port survive 2020 and made up for the cruise losses.

“Because of our diversity, we were able to pick some commodities back up that ran pretty strong, such as our breakbulk, which increased throughout 2020. Because, for some reason, during this pandemic, everybody wants toilet paper and paper towels. It was just going off the shelves. And, of course, the disinfecting wipes,” Wong said.

The port’s military operations increased too.

“At Jaxport, we are one of 17 strategic military ports in the U.S. Of course, when military operations ramp up, so do our operations. So, if you ask ‘how did 2020 fare off for Jacksonville?’ as our port authority goes – we did take a hit in cruise because it left the hole, but our other commodities kept us afloat,” he explained.

Predictions

The port predicts that it will take the whole winter and spring for them to get back on track with cruising.

“We have been waiting very eagerly for the CDC to drop the no sail order, which they did. It’s a little stringent, it’s a little rigorous – but I think the cruise industry in the ports such as us … we’re up to the challenge and up to the test to restart cruise,” Wong said adding that the port’s optimistic about restarting, as it will be done “very strategically and with precision.”

Given the still-existent flight restrictions, Wong did not worry about losing the port’s customer base.

“70 per cent of our customer base is a drive-up market. So, there are no planes or airlift that you have to take to get to us. We can reach about 70 million consumers with one day on the drive. That makes us very, very attractive,” he explained. “You don’t have to jump on a plane or a train to get here; you could just jump in your family van or vehicle and drive ready to our market.”

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Cancels All April Cruises

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings today announced an extension of its previously announced suspension of global cruise voyages as the company continues to work through its return to service plan to meet the requirements of the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”).

The suspension now includes all voyages on Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises embarking through April 30, 2021.

The company will continue to work in tandem with global government and public health authorities and its Healthy Sail Panel expert advisors to take all necessary measures to protect its guests, crew and the communities visited.

Guests who are currently booked on cancelled voyages on Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises or Regent Seven Seas Cruises are asked to contact their travel advisor or the cruise line for more information.