Carnival to reimburse federal government for rescues

Carnival to reimburse federal government for rescues

By Tom Stieghorst
Carnival Corp. has decided to reimburse the U.S. government for the costs incurred by the Coast Guard and Navy in coming to the aid of two of its cruise ships that had engine fires.

Carnival will pay back the expenses related to the Carnival Triumph rescue in the Gulf of Mexico in February and a similar event off the California coast in 2010 involving Carnival Splendor.

In a prepared statement, Carnival said, “It should be clearly noted that at no point in time has Carnival stated it would refuse to reimburse federal agencies if they sought remuneration.”

The Coast Guard has calculated its cost related to Carnival Triumph at $779,000 and the Splendor at $1.5 million. The Navy spent another $1.9 million, according to U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), who has pressed Carnival as to whether it would pay for the help it received.

In its statement, Carnival said that although no agencies have requested remuneration, “the company has made the decision to voluntarily provide reimbursement to the federal government.”

Previously, Carnival had responded to Rockefeller in a letter from James Hunn, Carnival Corp.’s senior vice president of maritime policy. Hunn said that help for ships in trouble at sea is the universal obligation of the entire maritime community.

Carnival Triumph incident takes toll on Wave bookings, pricing

Carnival Triumph incident takes toll on Wave bookings, pricing

By Tom Stieghorst
For the second year running, the cruise industry’s key sales period has coincided with a high-profile mishap at sea.

Agents say early momentum during the Wave season slowed notably after February, when a crippled Carnival Triumph temporarily became the public’s idea of a cruise.

Although big travel agent groups say bookings are up 5% to 16% over 2012, pricing remains slightly behind on cruises booked over the next 12 months, according to one analyst.

Kevin Weisner“It’s two stories in one quarter,” said Kevin Weisner, vice president at CruiseDeals.com in Charlotte, N.C. “January felt pretty good. Then in March it was a different story altogether. 

“We really felt there was a significant impact to our business and call volume in the month of March, which was pretty directly attributable to the incident with Carnival Triumph and the subsequent coverage.”

Weisner said bookings to date are “a little behind” last year, characterizing it as “more than a rounding error but less than ‘worry about it’ size.”

As might be expected, Carnival Cruise Lines is cited as the line with the biggest bookings drop. 

In a mid-March conference call, Carnival executives said bookings fell by double digits in the days immediately after the Carnival Triumph engine fire but bounced back after promotions were offered.

Ian Rennardson, an analyst at Jefferies International, estimated in a recent report that prices at Carnival’s flagship brand are down 8% for cruises departing in the next three months. 

Rennardson said Norwegian Cruise Line seems to be faring the best of the major brands, likely because of strong pricing for its Breakaway and Getaway ships nearing completion. 

Some big agencies say they’re doing pretty well. Joe McClure, president of Montrose Travel near Los Angeles, said cruise bookings are up 16% and sales up 23% year to date.

“We’ve seen soft pricing from the largest mass-market cruise line, but we’ve seen pretty steady pricing from their competitors in the same space,” McClure said. 

At CruiseOne/Cruises Inc., general manager Dwain Wall said bookings are up mid-single digits. He said business was strong in 2011 and 2012, “and that is continuing in 2013.”

Dwain Wall_But could it be even better? 

Bill Walsh, president of Cruise Travel Outlet, in Salem, N.H., said that after a record January the phones grew quiet. “We are still up double digits on the year but wonder how much we could have been up,” he said. 

Last year’s Wave season provides some easy comparisons. In 2012, the wreck of the Costa Concordia chilled consumers and drove prices into a down cycle that took most of the year to undo. 

Hopes were high at the start of 2013 that consumers had turned the page and would book cruises that they might have taken a pass on just after the Concordia’s accident.

While not nearly as consequential as the Concordia, the week-long saga of the disabled Carnival Triumph that started Feb. 10 grabbed an inordinate amount of media attention.

The questions now are how long will Carnival be affected, and how broadly will Triumph’s impact be felt? 

Wall said that he expects Carnival to bounce back big, as attention shifts to other news stories. Unlike some, Wall feels that Carnival stayed on top of the crisis. 

“I think Carnival did a fantastic job managing that horrible mess they got themselves in,“ he said.

For starters, Carnival met right away with CruiseOne to lay out the facts, develop talking points for agents and an FAQ sheet for passengers who were already booked on Carnival. 

“Carnival armed our agents with every possible tool we could think of to make sure they were not sitting there empty-handed,” Wall said. 

At the same time, CruiseOne/Cruises Inc. moved up some Carnival marketing that was originally planned for later in the year. Carnival has done some customized newsletters for CruiseOne/Cruises Inc. agents.

“They couldn’t have been more supportive,” Wall said. 

Beyond the Triumph fallout, another issue clouding Wave season is the strength of European demand. Wall said he’s having a “phenomenal year” in Europe due in part to better agent training.

Grace Dieleman, of Cruise Holidays of Chatham-Kent in Ontario, also said her European business is strong.

Joe McClureBut Europe is soft at Montrose Travel, McClure said. And another Canadian Cruise Holidays agent, Samuel Spencer of Calgary, said that despite some clever promotions from the cruise lines, his numbers remain depressed for big-ship European cruises.

“High summer airfare is once again a deterrent to price-sensitive cruisers,” he said.

In addition, many customers seem to be hanging back and not taking advantage of new value-added promotions such as Celebrity Cruises’ 123Go. When they do book to Europe, Spencer said, it is often too late to get decent airfares, which hurts the travel agent because such a large part of the overall price of the vacation is not eligible for commission.

Many cruise brands owned by public companies are restricted by Securities and Exchange Commission rules on what they can say about pricing and booking during Wave season. 

In his April 3 report, Jefferies analyst Rennardson said it appears to have gone better at Royal Caribbean and Norwegian than at Carnival Corp.

For close-in bookings, Rennardson said almost all Carnival Corp. brands are in negative territory, with the Euro-centric P&O, Cunard Line and Costa suffering the most.

Prices for Carnival Corp. cruises sailing within three months are down 8.9%, compared with increases of 7.7% for RCCL and 7.1% for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, leading Rennardson to conclude that the latter two are benefiting from Carnival’s troubles.

For cruises sailing four to 12 months from now, the picture is more muddled, with prices at Carnival (down 0.7%) and RCCL (down 3.3%) lower than last year but Norwegian (up 4.7%) in the black.

Rennardson said RCCL is being dragged down by a 23% price decline at its Spanish brand, Pullmantur.

Overall, pricing trends have deteriorated over the past few months, following a period of improvement in waning months of last year. 

“Given the easy comparisons of 2012,” Rennardson wrote, “the 2013 ‘Wave booking period’ is more important than ever, with share prices vulnerable to any perceived pricing weakness as cruise pricing in the first few months of the new year is often a good barometer for the rest of the year.”

One bit of good news that doesn’t seem to have made much difference is the stock market’s rise into record territory. New wealth might yet translate into higher cruise bookings and prices, although outside of luxury products, Wall said he doesn’t find much correlation.

Likely of more benefit, said Weisner of CruiseDeals, would be a lasting upturn in home prices. 

On that point, Weisner said he’s encouraged. For the first time in a long time, home values have been advancing month after month in a consistent fashion, giving worried homeowners some peace of mind.

“I really do believe, from a personal point of view, that [rising home prices] is going to be a better catalyst for leisure travel sales than the [stock] market,” Weisner said.

Carnival takes a PR hit, but veteran cruisers stay loyal

Carnival takes a PR hit, but veteran cruisers stay loyal

By Tom Stieghorst
Carnival TriumphWhile there is no question Carnival Cruise Lines’ image has been stained among the public at large by recent malfunctions on its ships, cruise sellers said last week that its reputation remains solid among experienced cruisers.

On the other hand, they said, consumers who have never before cruised are growing more leery of cruising in general following a series of incidents on Carnival ships, several of which were widely sensationalized by 24-hour TV news channels.

“People who have not sailed before, it makes them more fearful of sailing,” said Karen Gurley, of Athena Travel in Laurel, Md.

To mend a hole in bookings that opened after the Carnival Triumph incident, Carnival is offering promotions, including a “Friends and Family” discount of up to $600.

But while that might well fill Carnival cabins, the anticipated hit to fares, plus new costs associated with planned fleet-wide safety improvements, led two top credit agencies to revise parent Carnival Corp.’ s ratings outlook to “negative.”

Carnival wasted no time implementing the safety enhancements. It has scrubbed 10 additional cruises on the Carnival Triumph, and the first two cruises of its newly remodeled ship, the Carnival Sunshine, keeping them in drydock longer to add more redundant safety features.

“We sincerely regret canceling these cruises and disrupting our guests’ vacation plans,” Carnival President Gerry Cahill said.

A string of glitches that, independent of each other, might seem minor has instead evolved into a public relations challenge for Carnival as it seeks to weather recent hits to its reputation and emerge in calmer seas.

Its difficulties started with the Feb. 10 engine room fire that disabled Carnival Triumph. Then, a balky emergency generator on Carnival Dream resulted in that ship ending a cruise prematurely in St. Maarten.

As Dream passengers were flown home, reports of minor propulsion and steering problems on Carnival Legend and Elation raised reliability questions that were fueled by hyperactive media coverage.

“Sadly, we’ve just been hit by a run here that is very unfortunate,” Carnival Corp. Vice Chairman Howard Frank said in a conference call to discuss the company’s first quarter results.

Micky ArisonIn the same call, Carnival Corp. Chairman Micky Arison sought to put the run in perspective, both in numbers and guest satisfaction.

“The Dream was 4,000 passengers on a base of 4.4 million passengers that Carnival Cruise Lines carries,” each year, he said. “And they come back 98%, 99% very happy.”

Frank said a review of 10 years of incidents revealed that the number involving Carnival Corp. brands was no greater than the worldwide fleet average. But he added that since the 2012 Costa Concordia accident, it has been “a little bit higher.”

Carnival’s business suffered at least a temporary setback as a result of the series of incidents.

Arison said there was a double-digit decline in bookings immediately after the Triumph fire. But there were few cancellations, and price promotions have worked to restore interest.

“Price always makes a difference,” said Heather Morris, owner of Onderland Travel, in Lancaster, Pa. “If people believe they’re going to get an excellent deal, people will choose to go.”

Still, Morris said some travelers who haven’t cruised before “adamantly refuse” to consider it. “They will not do it,” she said, adding that she suggests all-inclusive resorts to them as an alternative.

Kyle Miller, a CruiseOne agent in North Little Rock, Ark., agreed it is people unfamiliar with cruising who are spooked by the incidents.

“People keep hearing, ‘Oh, another one’s happened,’ and they don’t understand it’s not the same thing that happened on the Triumph,” Miller said. “They’re completely minor issues that shouldn’t even be on the news and ordinarily wouldn’t be.”

Miller said only one customer had called to cancel, though she added, “It’s hard to know if there were people who didn’t call at all because of this, but overall we’re still getting bookings. We’re still fairly busy.”

Carnival launched its Friends and Family promotion on March 18 to help persuade reluctant cruisers. The sailings are mostly close-in dates, with sample fares ranging from $249 for an interior cabin on a four-night cruise from Tampa departing April 11 to $929 for a balcony on an eight-day Carnival Breeze sailing from Miami in late May.

Howard FrankSeveral agents said the offers are lighting up the phones, but they’re coming more from previously booked guests seeking a match than from new customers.

Jill LaBarre, of Cruise Brothers in Orlando, said she spent four hours on the phone with Carnival one day trying to rebook clients at lower prices. Although one got a substantial price reduction, others were offered small upgrades. In one case, they were offered an upgrade from interior to oceanview cabins, but at $40 more per person, LaBarre said.

The clients had been anticipating a lower price or equivalent onboard spending credits.

LaBarre was most upset about the 90 minutes she spent on hold waiting to talk to a Carnival representative. “I’m spending all my time and making less money for it when I could be doing other things for my business,” she said.

Carnival has not said how much the price promotions would reduce earnings, but Arison said the promotions are no greater than the reductions it made last year.

Even so, both Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s revised the ratings outlook on Carnival Corp. to negative, citing the potential for lower yields and higher costs as ships get upgrades after the Triumph fire.

If ratings on Carnival Corp.’s debt are lowered, it could raise the company’s cost to borrow money.

Carnival is already signing contracts to improve the Triumph and Sunshine ships. It has identified three areas it will improve: fire prevention, detection and suppression; redundancies in operations; and a wider scope of hotel services that can be run from emergency power.

The Carnival Triumph, already being repaired in Mobile, Ala., after its engine room fire, had been scheduled to resume sailing April 13 but will now stay in drydock until early June to get the new upgrades.

The Carnival Sunshine, the former Carnival Destiny, is at the Fincantieri shipyard in northern Italy, where its 49-day drydock has been extended to add the new safety features to the list of improvements it was already getting.

Scheduled to emerge in mid-April, the Carnival Sunshine will now make the first of its nine- and 12-day Mediterranean sailings on May 5.

Carnival said the sourcing of supplies and scheduling of improvements will take less time for the other ships in its fleet because the company will have greater familiarity with the process.

It expects to take each of its ships out of service sometime in 2013 or 2014 for improvements that emerge from reviewing the Carnival Triumph experience. It has a capital improvements budget of $800 million for refurbishment and maintenance in 2013 but isn’t saying how much of that will go toward fleetwide safety upgrades.

“Hopefully, in the next couple of weeks, we’ll have a full plan with estimated costs to doing all this work,” Frank told analysts. “I don’t see it as being enormous, but it will be some amount of money.”