Carnival Corporation Reports 2022 Q3 Earnings; EBITDA Turns Positive

Posted on 30 September, 2022 by Spacejunkie2

Carnival Corporation has provided its third quarter 2022 business update.

Key Highlights:

U.S. GAAP net loss of $770 million and an adjusted net loss of $688 million for the third quarter of 2022.
Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022 was over $300 million, turning positive for the first time since the resumption of guest cruise operations and marking a significant milestone.
Revenue increased by nearly 80% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to second quarter 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement.
Occupancy in the third quarter of 2022 increased 15 percentage points from the prior quarter.
Since the announcement of the company’s relaxed protocols in mid-August, aligning the company towards land-based vacation alternatives, booking volumes for all future sailings are considerably higher than strong 2019 levels.
The third quarter of 2022 ended with $7.4 billion of liquidity, including cash and borrowings available under the company’s revolving credit facility.

Carnival Corporation & plc’s Chief Executive Officer Josh Weinstein commented: “The well-being of the Caribbean region, Florida and other states still in the path of Hurricane Ian is very important to us. On behalf of Carnival Corporation, I would like to extend our deepest concern for those affected by Hurricane Ian and Fiona, some of whom are our own employees, travel agent partners, destination communities and loyal guests.”

Weinstein noted: “During our third quarter our business continued its positive trajectory, achieving over $300 million of adjusted EBITDA and reaching nearly 90% occupancy on our August sailings. We are continuing to close the gap to 2019 as we progress through the year, building occupancy on higher capacity and lower unit costs.”

Weinstein continued: “Since announcing the relaxation of our protocols last month, we have seen a meaningful improvement in booking volumes and are now running considerably ahead of strong 2019 levels. We expect to further capitalize on this momentum with renewed efforts to generate demand. We are focused on delivering significant revenue growth over the long-term while taking advantage of near-term tactics to quickly capture price and bookings in the interim.”

Weinstein added: “With a transformed fleet, an unmatched portfolio of well-recognized brands, unparalleled scale in an under-penetrated industry and an incredibly talented global team, we have the ability to drive durable revenue growth through pricing improvements over time. We believe this will provide significant free cash flow and accelerate our return to strong profitability and investment grade credit ratings.”

Third Quarter 2022 Results and Statistical Information

Revenue increased by nearly 80% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter of 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement. For the cruise segments, revenue per passenger cruise day (“PCD”) for the third quarter of 2022 decreased compared to a strong 2019.
Onboard and other revenue per PCD for the third quarter of 2022 increased significantly compared to a strong 2019.
PCDs for the third quarter of 2022 were 17.7 million, representing a 55% increase from the prior quarter.
Occupancy in the third quarter of 2022 increased 15 percentage points from the prior quarter.
Available lower berth days (“ALBD”) for the third quarter of 2022 were 21.0 million, which represents 92% of total fleet capacity, increasing from 74% in the second quarter of 2022.
Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022 was over $300 million, turning positive for the first time since the resumption of guest cruise operations and marking a significant milestone.

Total customer deposits were $4.8 billion as of August 31, 2022, approaching $4.9 billion as of August 31, 2019, which was a record third quarter. New bookings during the third quarter of 2022 primarily offset the historical third quarter seasonal decline in customer deposits (a $0.3 billion decline in the third quarter of 2022 compared to a $1.1 billion decline for the same period in 2019).

Guest Cruise Operations

Weinstein said: “With our return to guest cruise operations essentially complete, we are now relentlessly focused on driving top line growth and returning to strong profitability. We believe the strategic changes we have already made to our fleet resulting in a younger and more efficient fleet, coupled with our recent portfolio optimization efforts including COSTA by CARNIVAL, will provide strong tailwinds along our path to profitability.”

As of September 30, 2022, approximately 95 per cent of the company’s capacity is serving guests. The company expects eight of its nine brands will have their entire fleet serving guests by the end of the fourth quarter of 2022.

According to a press release, given Costa Cruises’ significant presence in Asia, particularly China, which remains closed to cruising, the brand continues to evaluate deployment options and fleet optimization alternatives beyond the previously announced transfers of Costa Luminosa to Carnival Cruise Line as well as Costa Venezia and Costa Firenze to the COSTA by CARNIVAL concept.

The company’s brands continue to responsibly relax their COVID-19-related protocols aligning the company towards land-based vacation alternatives.

This generally includes greatly reduced or eliminated testing requirements and significantly broadens the demand pool by welcoming unvaccinated guests. These relaxed protocols generally became effective throughout September and are subject to local destination regulations.

The company saw a continuation of its 2022 sequential improvement in adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency in the third quarter of 2022 and said it expects to see continued improvement in the fourth quarter of 2022 with a low double-digit increase as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 driven in part by higher advertising expense to drive 2023 revenue.

While the company’s year-to-date adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD during 2022 have benefited from the sale of smaller-less efficient ships and the delivery of larger-more efficient ships, this benefit is offset by a portion of its fleet being in pause status for part of the year, restart related expenses, an increase in the number of dry dock days, the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols, inflation and supply chain disruptions. The company anticipates that many of these costs and expenses will end in 2022.

Given the seasonality of its business, the company expects a net loss and breakeven to slightly negative adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter ending November 30, 2022. Having achieved over $300 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, the company anticipates positive adjusted EBITDA for the second half of 2022 despite the seasonality of its business and the increasing investment in advertising to drive yields in 2023. Additionally, on a year-over-year basis, the company expects an improvement in adjusted EBITDA and occupancy, with occupancy returning to historical levels during 2023.

Bookings

Booking volumes for all future sailings during the third quarter of 2022 saw a continuation of the accelerated booking volumes during the second quarter of 2022, closing the gap to strong 2019 levels. Since the announcement of the company’s relaxed protocols in mid-August, aligning the company towards land-based vacation alternatives, booking volumes for all future sailings are considerably higher than strong 2019 levels. (The company’s current booking trends will be compared to booking trends for 2019 sailings as it is the most recent full year of guest cruise operations.)

Cumulative advance bookings for the fourth quarter of 2022 are below the historical range and at lower prices, primarily due to future cruise credits (“FCCs”), as compared to 2019 sailings.

Cumulative advance bookings for the full year 2023 are slightly above the historical average and at considerably higher prices, as compared to 2019 sailings, normalized for FCCs.

Financing and Capital Activity

During the third quarter of 2022, the company completed a $1.15 billion public equity offering of its common stock. The company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which could include addressing 2023 debt maturities. In addition, the company invested $0.5 billion in capital expenditures, repaid $0.4 billion of debt principal and incurred $0.4 billion of interest expense, net during the quarter. The company ended the third quarter of 2022 with $7.4 billion of liquidity, including cash and borrowings available under the revolving credit facility.

Additionally, the company exchanged $339 million in aggregate principal amount of its outstanding Convertible Senior Notes due 2023 (the “Existing Notes”) for the same amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2024, extending maturities at the existing rate of 5.75%. The New Notes have the same initial conversion price as the Existing Notes, representing no dilution to shareholders at scheduled maturity versus the Existing Notes, the same coupon and no upfront cost to the company.

Carnival Cruise Line to Operate Full Ships this Summer at 110 Percent Occupancy

Posted on 29 June, 2022 by Spacejunkie2

With its full fleet sailing as of May, Carnival Cruise Line is helping lead the comeback for Carnival Corporation.

The brand is expected to operate at 110 per cent occupancy for the all-important summer season, according to Arnold Donald, president and CEO of Carnival Corporation.

“Carnival Cruise Line, our largest brand, achieved consistently positive adjusted EBITDA beginning in March. Carnival Cruise Line also became our first brand to sail its entire fleet in May and is expecting occupancy to approach 110 per cent during our third quarter,” he said.

Donald, on the company’s second-quarter and business update call, noted these “close-to-home” cruises, where guests perceive far less friction travelling than going abroad.

With a strong North American cruise market, Carnival is pivoting to add more capacity in the form of two redeployed Costa Cruises vessels under the Costa by Carnival umbrella. The Costa Venezia will sail from New York starting in 2023 while the Costa Firenze will homeport in California beginning in 2024.

Coronavirus Could Pose Threat to Cruise Ship Credit Ratings

Posted on 22 February, 2020 by Spacejunkie2

The cruise ship Diamond Princess is docked at the port of Yokohama, south of Tokyo, in this photo taken by Kyodo February 7, 2020. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS

The impact on cruise companies’ earnings from cancelled trips, steep discounts and ships quarantined over coronavirus concerns could pose credit risks, said rating agencies Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings.

Carnival Corp and Royal Caribbean Cruises said last week that scrapped itineraries in Asia due to the outbreak would affect their earnings per share more than expected. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings on Thursday forecast an impact of 75 cents per share on full-year adjusted earnings, citing virus-linked fallout.

“It reduces the flexibility that these companies have in their rating categories,” said Moody’s analyst Peter Trombetta. “It removes some of their cushions.”The earnings impact on both Carnival and Royal Caribbean were deemed “credit negative” by Moody’s although neither company’s credit ratings were immediately affected.

In a note published on Wednesday, S&P Global analysts wrote that the impact on Carnival’s cash flow from the coronavirus outbreak is expected to drive leverage above the 2.5 debt to EBITDA ratio is 2020, the threshold that would normally warrant a downgrade if breached. However, if the analysts believe the impact on Carnival to be temporary and that leverage could be lowered within a year or two, they do not expect to downgrade the rating.

Financially, “Carnival would be impacted the most. They also have the most capacity in China. So they would probably see the biggest hit to earnings,” said Trombetta.

In response to a request for comment, a Carnival spokesman said, “The primary impact on the cruise industry is focused mostly on China, which is an emerging market for the cruise industry, so the impact is relatively small.” Neither Royal Caribbean nor Norwegian responded to a request for comment.

While the outbreak casts a shadow on the cruise industry in the short-term, credit analysts said they did not expect the effect to be lasting.

“We have very short memories,” said Trombetta, citing disasters like the wreck of the Costa Concordia ship in 2012, which killed 32 people. “People want to go on cruises. Once some time passes, that demand – so far – seems to keep coming back.”

Fitch Ratings, the third of the three largest credit rating agencies do not publicly rate the cruise companies, but analyst Colin Mansfield, who covers the gaming, lodging and leisure sectors, said he expected the consequences of the epidemic to be temporary.

And yet, Norwegian Cruise Line Chief Executive Frank Del Rio noted on a call with investors on Thursday that the coronavirus in particular “has caused near panic in the travelling public.”

“The decrease in bookings is similar to what we see – we have seen in past similar events, whether they be geopolitical during the financial crisis, et cetera. What’s a little bit different about this one is the increase in cancellations.”

That bias could create longer-term problems for the industry. There is some potential for “a softer demand picture in general if cruise gets some bad PR from this that sticks in peoples’ minds for any period of time,” said Paul Golding, analyst at Macquarie Capital. (Reporting by Kate Duguid; Editing by Megan Davies, Steve Orlofsky and Daniel Wallis)(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019.