For cruising, a low-key start to hurricane season

By Tom Stieghorst
*InsightConsider Hurricane Arthur a kind of warm-up exercise for the 2014 hurricane season, which has five months to go.

Cruise lines had to pay serious attention to Arthur, but didn’t have to do much in the end.

Unlike many Atlantic hurricanes, the storm was never a threat to the Caribbean, and Florida barely had time to get worried about it before Arthur departed for points north.

But hurricanes tend to conform to patterns in a given season, pushed by atmospheric and climate conditions. So the cruise ports up and down the East Coast might want to do a little extra planning now in case another Arthur forms.*TomStieghorst

For what it’s worth, hurricane experts are forecasting a relatively mild season due to cooler than normal tropical Atlantic sea temperatures and the ongoing formation of an El Nino current in the Pacific Ocean.

One atmospheric scientist, Robert Gray of Colorado State University, is calling for 10 named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane in the Atlantic this season, which stretches officially until Dec. 1.

Gray rates the probability of a major hurricane (category 3,4 or 5) striking the U.S. East Coast this year at 22% (the average is 31%) and the chance for a Gulf Coast strike at 23% (the average is 30%).

He says the chance of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean is 32%, compared with a 42% average for the past century.

Of course, Gray and other forecasters had egg on their faces last year when the stronger-than-expected season they forecasted failed to materialize. Gray predicted before the season that nine hurricanes would form, but only two showed up.

Arthur’s progress up the East Coast prompted some minor itinerary shuffling. The Carnival Splendor called in Bermuda rather than St. John over the weekend. The Norwegian Gem did an overnight in Nassau rather than calling on Great Stirrup Cay, to sail back to New York ahead of the weather.

But it’s worth pointing out that no one had their cruise vacation ruined by Hurricane Arthur, unlike the estimated 250,000 folks who planned to spend their Independence Day weekend in the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

The next named storm, according to the World Meteorological Association’s list for 2014, will be Bertha. Let’s hope she’s neither big nor bad.

And should the 2014 be a repeat of 2013, with only 13 named storms, the last one this year will be named Marco. Of course, if we only get to Josephine, Gray’s 2014 forecast will be right on the money.

Report warns of climate-change threats to tourism

By Michelle Baran

A new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) highlights threats from the impact of global warming to which the U.S. travel industry should be paying close attention.

Last month, UCS, an independent alliance of science analysts, undertook an in-depth study of the current and future impact of climate change on 30 at-risk historical and archaeological sites in the U.S. The group’s findings were released in a report titled “National Landmarks at Risk: How Rising Seas, Floods and Wildfires Are Threatening the United States’ Most Cherished Historic Sites.”

What UCS found was that rising sea levels, coastal erosion, increased flooding, heavy rains and more frequent large-scale wildfires are in some cases causing irreparable damage to archaeological sites, historical buildings and cultural landmarks across the U.S., and, if not addressed, could ultimately result in the total loss of many sites that are popular tourist attractions.

The report coincides with President Obama’s anticipated announcement this week of a politically controversial plan to crack down on power plant emissions.

In an interview last week, Adam Markham, director of the Climate Impacts Initiative at UCS and one of the report’s co-authors, said, “Climate change has become a lightning-rod political issue, and we were trying to depoliticize it by showing how seriously it impacts places that all Americans care about. For us, it was a way to take the politics away froLiberty Island damagem climate change.”

It is difficult to take politics and controversy out of the climate change debate. Skeptics disagree with scientists who claim that increased carbon emissions in the atmosphere are resulting in severe global warming. Yet the threats to the sites researched by UCS are well documented, whether or not one believes they are directly attributable to climate change.

The report is a collection of some 30 case studies of national parks, monuments and historical and archaeological landmarks from around the country, including the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island, Boston’s historical districts, the Harriet Tubman National Monument, Historic Jamestown, NASA Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral National Seashore, Bering Land Bridge National Monument, Mesa Verde National Park and Cesar Chavez National Monument.

“The area where it’s almost clearest that climate change is having an impact is from sea level rise,” Markham said. “So as the seas rise, that means we get more coastal flooding, and when storms hit, we get more storm surge.”

According to UCS, that possibility became a reality in 2012 when Hurricane Sandy submerged most of Liberty and Ellis islands, causing an estimated $77 million in damage to those sites alone and forcing parks officials to shut them down until the following year.

Jamestown Island in Virginia is another cause for alarm, according to Markham. With predictions for sea-level rise estimated at 3 feet or more by the end of the century, he said, the site of the first permanent English colony in America, which sits at 3 feet above sea level, is at risk of being submerged.

Fort MonroeIn Alaska, melting sea ice has given way to erosion of the coastlines of Cape Krusenstern National Monument and the Bering Land Bridge National Preserve. And in the Western states, climate change is increasing the risk of large wildfires by driving up temperatures, reducing winter snowpack and drying out forests, according to the report.

The goal of UCS in releasing the report is to raise awareness about the impact of climate change in general, but it is also a call to action for the support and preservation of sites that are or soon will be at risk and around which a robust and lucrative tourism industry has been built.

The hope, said Markham, is that observers will take a more serious look at the threats and take action to prevent the worst from happening.

Remediation could mean anything from moving actual landmarks — as was the case with the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse in North Carolina, which in 1999 was moved 2,900 feet from the spot on which it had stood since 1870 to avoid the threat of coastal erosion — to creating new sea walls or building up existing sea walls and sand dunes to protect important natural or historical sites.

For people interested in getting involved, Markham suggested offering money or in-kind support to organizations that work to protect such sites.

But he also noted that the larger objective for UCS is working to reduce carbon emissions and slowing the speed of climate change. For the travel industry, Markham suggested working to find ways to reduce the industry’s footprint with more sustainable travel practices and using travel’s influence as a way to raise awareness of the issue.

Climate scientists point out that the threats brought to light by the report are not unique to the case study sites but rather are issues that face destinations both within the U.S. and throughout the world. And they note that similar concerns are going to crop up with more frequency and greater urgency as significant cultural, historical and natural treasures increasingly are threatened by changing climate conditions.

“I talked to an archaeologist in Rome recently who was involved with how the recent floods in Europe are impacting some of the Roman remains, including at Pompeii,” Markham said. “And the World Heritage Sites within Unesco, they’ve also been looking at these impacts. So I think there’s a growing realization around the world that this is a major issue for both ancient and modern historic sites.”

Norwegian Dawn overnights in Bermuda due to storm

Norwegian Dawn overnights in Bermuda due to storm

By Gay Nagle Myers
The Norwegian Dawn spent the night on Tuesday in Bermuda due to Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The ship departed mid-morning Wednesday and is expected to arrive on schedule in Boston on Friday morning.

The Norwegian Breakaway is scheduled to arrive at King’s Wharf in Bermuda on Wednesday evening for a two-night stay as scheduled.

JetBlue and US Airways waived change fees for flights to/from Bermuda on Wednesday.

Rain and wind buffeted Bermuda during the storm, but no major damage was reported.
Gabrielle was well out to sea by Wednesday afternoon.

Humberto in the far eastern Atlantic became the eighth named storm of the year and the first hurricane of the season on Wednesday morning.

Humberto poses no threat to land at this stage, according to the National Hurricane Center.