Larger cruise ships on local deployments expected to be first to return

Deck Plans | Azamara

Larger cruise ships with local deployments will be the first to come back on sale following Covid-19, the former boss of Azamara has predicted.

Larry Pimentel, who stepped aside from his role as president and chief executive in April as the line made plans to survive the pandemic, said he expected older, smaller ships with international deployments to “sit on the sidelines simply because of the air travel” as travel resumes.

Speaking on a Travel Weekly webcast, he said: “Think about taking a 10, 12 or 15-hour flight in coach and the denseness that you’d find on these carriers. I’m not going to do that at the moment.

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“We’re going to find big ships with local deployments are the first to come back,” Pimentel said. “You’re probably going to find short rotations out of the States and you’ll probably get three or four-day rotations going to private islands. Why? Private islands can secure the safety and health in all areas without a bunch of nonsensical politics layered in it, which makes things even more complex and, frankly, angers a lot of people.”

Pimentel said small luxury vessels sailing to less crowded destinations may also come back sooner, but said: “We still have an issue with social distancing in an industry that was all about the connection on the ships, so herein lies a paradoxical sort of scenario.”

Pimentel predicted many ships would not come back into the sector at as line battle with cash flow issues.

“Cruise lines need the cash right now,” he said, noting that the only income lines are bringing in is onboard revenue as cabins on 2021 sailings will be filled up with people who deferred from this year and used their future cruise credits to rebook. “So the cruise industry is going to have a terrible 2020, and a terrible economic 2021.”

Pimentel said: “The ships that come back are likely to fill up as there won’t be as many ships operating. Let’s face it, there will be some ships that will sit in the sidelines that won’t come back to the industry. The whole industry closed down in about three weeks. There is no way in hell we’re coming back in three weeks or even three months.”

He also predicted that “new cruise ship orders will slow so significantly that it will almost seem like they are stopping altogether, compared to we’ve seen over the last couple of years”.

“I fully expect a lot of options not to be secured,” he said. “This [recovery from the pandemic] is not months, this is a multi-year process.”

He pointed out that there are 19 new ocean ships on order this year, adding: “That’s a lot of vessels and right now, who needs more capacity? Nobody. But in the future, demand will be there. I’ve learned this about the consumer – once they feel even a little bit comfortable, and the value seems there, they will book.”

Port Canaveral: Diversified Offering

Six Ships, Port Canaveral

A brand-new Terminal 3 is nearing the final stages of construction for Carnival Cruise Line at Port Canaveral, along with a 1,800-spot parking garage, all in preparation for the new Mardi Gras which will become the first LNG-fueled ship in North America.

 

Projections call for just under five million cruise guests in the fiscal year 2020, and over 5.6 million by 2024.

 

For port CEO Captain John Murray, the planning started years ago, wanting to be ready for LNG-fueled ships. The effort has paid off as Port Canaveral will host the Mardi Gras year-round and is expected to be home to Disney’s LNG-fueled ships as well.

“We are growing consistently,” Murray said. “All our cruise lines are very strong and over the next few years they plan to add additional ships.

 

A rendering of the new Cruise Terminal 3

“We are going to become the Florida port that can expand as the tonnage will be on the market and there won’t be as many berthing options in Florida as there have been in the past.”

Other big news at Port Canaveral includes the summer arrival of Marella Cruises in 2021, a deployment move announced late last year that had been in the works since 2017, said Robert “Bobby G” Giangrisostomi, vice president, cruise business development.

“They were looking for an American product,” he said, adding that the port’s proximity to Orlando was key.

 

Long term, the big homeport customers have major deals with Port Canaveral, including Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Disney, and Murray said in November he was negotiating a new deal with Norwegian.

 

With options, Carnival’s latest arrangement could extend to 45 years. For the port, terminal infrastructure is about building smart. “Flexible terminals,” commented Giangrisostomi. “A 1,200-foot ship can have up to 7,000 passengers. You have to be flexible. LNG ships, big ships, medium ships and Port Canaveral can handle them all.”

Deals also include more parking infrastructure, which may not be as long term.

“We have to look at what the concept of parking could be in 10 years,” Murray said, noting autonomous vehicles and an 83 per cent jump in Uber and Lyft usage at the port year-over-year.

 

Shorter cruises? Plan for more drive-in passengers. Estimates suggest that 40 to 60 per cent of guests embarking at Port Canaveral are drive-in customers.

“We are 200 miles closer to the entire Southeast,” explained Giangrisostomi

Another metric that is up is port-of-call business. With an expected 83 transit calls this year, that number jumps to just over 100 next year with more visits from the Oasis of the Seas sailing from Bayonne.

 

“Our port-of-call business is substantial,” added David German, director, cruise business development. “It’s good for the local community, with 6,000-plus passengers.”

The out-island arms race has paid dividends to all the Florida ports, Murray added. With cruise lines spending big developing their own destinations in the Bahamas, they have a reason to keep ships in nearby homeports.

 

New facial recognition has sped up clearing ships with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which can now happen in as little as two hours for 5,000 disembarking guests.

“They clear the ship very quickly. It helps the cruise lines get to zero counts much sooner,” Murray said.

 

“Being ready and out front for our cruise customers,” Murray answered when asked about how to run a cruise port successfully. “The guests are the most important part of our operation … easy in, easy off, easy on the ship, easy off the ship. We want to be number one in customer service … It boils down to the end-user.”

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd posts $1.4bn Q1 loss

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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd has reported a net loss of US$1.4 billion for the first quarter of 2020.

The parent company of Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara and Silversea paused all operations amid the global Covid-19 pandemic on March 13.

In a trading update today,  the company said the pandemic was expected to have hit production at shipyards, meaning delays to new-build Royal ships.

RCCL said the pandemic had led to the cancellation of 130 sailings, which equated to a 20% reduction on its planned sailings and was 17% down on last year’s programme.

The company posted a profit of $249.7 million in the first quarter of 2019 and said it expects to report an overall net loss in 2020.

RCCL withdrew its full-year trading guidance in March, and the update noted: “The magnitude, duration and speed of Covid-19 remain uncertain. As a consequence, the company cannot estimate the impact of Covid-19 on its business, financial condition or near or longer-term financial or operational results with reasonable certainty.”

It expects non-operating expenses of between $590 million and $610 million for the remainder of the year.

Bookings for the remainder of 2020 are “meaningfully lower” than 2019 with lower prices, RCCL reported but noted that before the pandemic took hold it was in “a strong booked position and at higher prices” than 2019.

Looking ahead, it said “the booked position for 2021 is within historical ranges when compared to the same time last year” with 2021 prices “up mid-single digits compared to 2020”. The company stressed it was “still early in the booking cycle”.

RCCL brands had offered customers booked on cancelled cruises either a cash refund or future cruise credit note and said that, as of April 30, 2020, approximately 45% of guests had requested cash refunds.

As of March 31, 2020, the company had $2.4 billion of cash in customer deposits.

RCCL estimates its cash burn to be, on average, in the range of approximately $250 million to $275 million per month while operations are suspended but noted it had “taken significant actions to enhance its liquidity, preserve cash and secure additional financing”. These included securing a $4 billion increase in financing and knocking $3 billion off its 2020 capital expenditure.

“We have taken swift and substantial actions to bolster our financial position by significantly reducing our operating and capital spend and leveraging our strong balance sheet to raise additional capital,” said Jason Liberty, executive vice president and chief financial officer.

As of April 30, 2020, the company had liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion all in the form of cash and cash equivalents, RCCL reported. And on May 19, 2020, it completed a $3.3 billion senior secured notes offering, improving its liquidity position by approximately $1 billion.

RCCL noted that as of May 19, 2020, the expected debt maturities for the remainder of 2020 and 2021, are $0.4 billion and $0.9 billion, respectively.

“Responding to the dramatic change in business conditions caused by COVID-19 has required focus, dedication, ingenuity and improvisation from all our people, and their efforts have been nonstop,” said chairman and chief executive Richard Fain. “We understand that when our ships return to service, they will be sailing in a changing world.  How well we anticipate and solve for this new environment will play a critical role in keeping our guests and crew safe and healthy, as well as position our business and that of our travel agent partners to return to growth.”

RCCL is due to complete its repatriation of crew members to their home countries, and said the company’s future focus now turns to four key principles:

  • Ensuring the safety of guests and crew
  • Proactively enhancing liquidity
  • Protecting the Company’s brands, and
  • Defining and preparing for a “new normal.”