Amid Asia tensions, uncertainty over expansion

Amid Asia tensions, uncertainty over expansion

By Tom Stieghorst
*InsightMaritime disputes in Asia have thrown a crimp into the cruise industry’s plans to expand in that fast-growing area of the world, and signs are the problem is growing worse.

The latest is a report in the Wall Street Journal that China is challenging archaeological exploration of hundreds of shipwrecks, many of them distant from its own shores.

The article says China views the wrecks as proof of Chinese exploration of islands in the South China Sea, in areas close to the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei.

According to the report, of particular concern was an incident last year off the coast of the Philippines, when Chinese vessels forced a French archaeological team to abandon its exploration of a 13th century Chinese junk.*TomStieghorst

Already, China and Japan are in a standoff over disputed islands in the East China Sea. As a result, Royal Caribbean International and other cruise lines are not including Japan on their itineraries from China, opting for only Korean ports on cruises from northern Chinese cities.

The tensions in that area have escalated, too, with China claiming air rights over a wide swath of international ocean, including the disputed islands known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan.

In its new air defense identification zone, China seeks to require all aircraft to file flight plans before entering the area. Japan and the U.S. immediately sent military planes into the space unannounced, to challenge the newly asserted Chinese zone.

None of this can improve the chance that China will get more big cruise ships. Until the uncertainty clears, the cruise industry’s Asia expansion, certainly in China, will not be full steam ahead.

Speaking on a third-quarter conference call to analysts, before China asserted its new air defense rights, Royal Caribbean International President Adam Goldstein said Royal had been hoping in 2013 to announce plans to resume calls in Japan on its China cruises aboard the Mariner and Voyager of the Seas. Instead, it has been forced to open 2014 bookings with only Korean destinations again.

“This is, of course, frustrating particularly since we do not see any signs of positive geopolitical change in the dynamic between China and Japan,” Goldstein said. “We continue to build our brand, our distribution and our management team in China with a view to making the best of the itinerary options that are available to us.”

Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas makes maiden call to Tokyo

Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas makes maiden call to Tokyo

IN: Japan ~ Voyager of the Seas

Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas made her first ever stop in Tokyo over the weekend, which begins a season of stops to Japan’s capital.

Voyager of the Seas arrived from Shanghai, China and will be based in a Japanese port for the first time.  She will offer Tokyo sailings ranging from 5 to 6 nights visiting Busan, Jejuand Nagasaki until early May, including one cruise chartered by Club Tourism, a major tour operator in Japan.

As part of Voyager of the Seas’ first stop in Tokyo, a traditional plaque exchange between Voyager of the Seas’ Captain, Charles Teige and Mitsuchika Tarao, Director General, Bureau of Port & Harbor, Tokyo.

Royal Caribbean’s Regional Director, Asia Pacific Mr Kelvin Tan said, “We are proud to bring Voyager of the Seas to Japan to let our fans here experience directly from home Royal Caribbean’s signature international and innovative cruising style. Japan is one of our top markets in Asia, and we are very encouraged by the strong response from this market for these cruises. We will continue to work with our Japanese representatives, agents and partners to bring more of such cruises to Japan.”

The task of expanding cruising globally

The task of expanding cruising globally

By Tom Stieghorst

*InsightThe biggest challenge for the cruise industry over the next decade may be the cultural one.

As cruise lines peer into the future, their prospects more than ever depend on countries where cruising is unfamiliar as a vacation option. The good news is that few people outside of North America have been on a cruise, meaning there’s plenty of potential for growth. But in many countries it’s still too early to tell if cruising is going to be a long-term hit with vacationers.

Cruising is largely an Anglo-American vacation. When the number of people who have cruised is measured against total population in various countries, the top four markets are the U.S., the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada. In all of these countries, more than 2% of the population has cruised.

*TomStieghorstGermans also appear to love to cruise.  Some of Carnival Corp.’s best performing ships sail for German brands.  The number of cruisers from Germany could overtake the total from the U.K. within five years, CLIA President Christine Duffy recently forecast.

Next comes Italy, home to Costa Cruises and MSC Cruises, but it produces only 4% of the world’s passengers, notes a report from Stivel Nicholas analyst Steven Wieczynski. By comparison, according to Stivel Nicholas, Germany accounts for 6% of global passengers, and North America accounts for 75%.

“While passenger counts from the other major European markets, including Italy, Spain and France, continue to grow, overall market penetration remains subdued,” he wrote in a recent report.

In Asia, many Japanese travel abroad, but relatively few go cruising. Although Princess Cruises is taking another stab at developing the market in Japan, some cruise executives say the idea of a cruise hasn’t taken root in that country.At a recent cruise conference in Hong Kong, Carnival Asia CEO Pier Luigi Foschi said the penetration rate for cruises in Japan is 0.08%, compared with about 3.4% in the U.S. In China, it is even lower, at 0.04%.

To their credit, Carnival and other cruise companies are investing significant sums to experiment in Asia to figure out what kind of cruise might appeal to residents there.

The potential for gaining even a small part of the 80 million Chinese who traveled abroad last year is too tempting for the cruise lines to pass up. The challenge will be creating a cruise for the non-Anglo world that translates well into the local vacation culture.