Gaining perspective with a look back at RCCL, Carnival Corp.

Gaining perspective with a look back at RCCL, Carnival Corp.

By Tom Stieghorst
*InsightLooking back 10 years at the two biggest cruise companies is one way to gauge how far the industry has progressed and gain some perspective on the problems of the day.

In 2003, the problems included terrorism, war, flu and the SARS respiratory virus. “A perfect storm,” Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Chairman Richard Fain called it in his annual letter to shareholders that year.

On the shipbuilding front, RCCL made its first new order in 3½ years, for an “Ultra Voyager” class ship that would evolve into the Freedom of the Seas. The letter mentioned short cruises from Los Angeles had been restored, and a brand-new terminal in New Jersey called Cape Liberty was inaugurated.*TomStieghorst

Celebrity Cruises had launched a marketing campaign with the theme of ordinary people being treated like celebrities, the Serenade and Mariner of the Seas were added to the fleet and RCCL’s joint venture with First Choice Holidays, Island Cruises, had just turned profitable.

RCCL was hoping to regain the investment ratings on its debt that it had lost after the 9/11 terror attacks.

Flash-forward to 2013. Terrorism, war, flu and SARS, while not vanquished, were not hot-button issues. In his letter to shareholders, Fain says RCCL ordered no new ships for 2017 to keep capacity growth modest.

Royal isn’t sailing from Los Angeles anymore, but its Cape Liberty terminal in New York Harbor is more important than ever. Royal built six ships after Serenade and Mariner, with a seventh, Quantum of the Seas, due in November.

RCCL’s stake in Island Cruises was sold to Germany’s TUI, which is a 50-50 partner with RCCL in TUI Cruises. And the company is still trying to earn back its investment grade rating.

For Carnival Corp., 2003 was the year it finalized its landmark merger with P&O Princess Cruises. It was preparing to take delivery of seven ships in a nine-month stretch, including Cunard Line’s Queen Mary 2.

“I have never, in my 35 years in this business, been more excited and enthusiastic about the future of our company,” Carnival Corp. Chairman and CEO Micky Arison wrote.

Ten years later, the mood is less ebullient. Arison’s letter in the annual report is a bit retrospective; it notes his retirement as CEO of the company he has steered for three decades and salutes Carnival veterans Howard Frank and Pier Luigi Foschi, who also stepped down from executive roles in 2013, leaving the company’s day-to-day direction in the hands of a relative newcomer, Arnold Donald.

Arison’s letter says Donald brought “a fresh perspective and a new energy to our company. … His skills are ideally suited to lead the next stage of Carnival Corp. and PLC.”

Carnival to sail 11-day cruises from Galveston

By Tom Stieghorst
Carnival Cruise Lines said that it will offer the Texas market longer cruises for the first time, with four 10- and 11-day sailings between Galveston and San Juan.

A pair of 11-day cruises will also feature a first call for Carnival in Bonaire. Those sailings, scheduled for Oct. 24, 2015, and Jan. 16, 2016, will also stop in Grand Cayman, Aruba, Grenada, Martinique and St. Maarten before concluding in San Juan.

The 10-day departures from San Juan are scheduled for Nov. 4, 2015, and Jan. 27, 2016, and will stop at St. Thomas, St. Kitts, St. Maarten, Antigua, Grand Turk, and the private Bahamian island of Half Moon Cay.

Galveston cruises on Carnival currently depart on four- and five-day Mexican and seven-day Caribbean itineraries.

Carnival said a desire for longer, more varied itineraries was one of the themes that emerged from its series of Carnival Conversations meetings with travel agents.

Carnival and Costa see improvement in Q1

By Jerry Limone
Carnival_BreezeCarnival Cruise Lines and Costa Cruises are doing better, according to Carnival Corp.’s first-quarter financial report this week (see bottom of this report), but the company’s largest brands in the U.S. and Europe still have a steep hill to climb.

How steep? CFO David Bernstein said that based on the guidance of Carnival Corp.’s competitors, those companies are at or near 2008 levels for net revenue yield, a key cruise industry metric similar to revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel industry.

Conversely, Carnival Corp.’s yield is down about 11% from 2008, Bernstein said.

Delving further, Bernstein said the company took a 10% hit from the global financial crisis of 2009, gained about half of that back by 2011, but lost those gains after the Costa Concordia accident in 2012 and the much-publicized stranding of the Carnival Triumph in 2013.

“Hopefully, as our brands recover, both Carnival Cruise Lines and Costa, we can recoup, getting back to 2008 yields,” Bernstein said. “Hotel RevPARs are also back to those levels, so we have every reason to believe we can get back there, as well.”

There were good signs from Costa and Carnival in Carnival Corp.’s first quarter, the three months ended on Feb. 28. Costa’s yield was up, Carnival Corp. CEO Arnold Donald said, aided by a 50% increase in booking volume.

However, Costa’s gain was more than offset by a yield decrease for the company’s other European brands, which struggled largely due to a stagnant economy in Europe. Carnival Corp. said that net ticket yield fell 3% for all European cruise lines.

Carnival, too, had strong booking volume. Donald referenced the brand’s single-month record for bookings in January, when 565,000 people reserved space on a Carnival cruise. Attractive promotions and increased advertising spending helped make that happen.

ArnoldDonaldDonald said the company will spend $600 million on advertising in 2014, a 20% increase over 2012. He said Carnival’s TV ads during the Sochi Winter Olympics and Princess’ first TV ad campaign in 10 years were vehicles to attract first-time cruisers.

But because of discounting, particularly in the Caribbean where most of Carnival Cruise Lines’ ships operate, Carnival Corp.’s yield fell 2.1% in Q1. The company forecasts that yield will fall 3% to 4% in Q2, compared with a year earlier.

The improved performance of Carnival and Costa “builds confidence that we are tracking to turn the corner beginning in the second half of 2014,” Donald said.

But until that corner is turned, discounting will continue. Donald said that increased capacity in the Caribbean industrywide puts pressure on pricing.

The company is “behind on both price and occupancy” in the Caribbean, Bernstein said, despite the Carnival brand’s record-breaking January.

The North America brands are best performing in Europe for their seasonal program, where they are “well ahead on price and occupancy,” Bernstein said.

Carnival Corp. beats expectations, reports Q1 loss

By Jerry Limone
Royal Princess shipCarnival Corp. said Tuesday that the company had a $15 million net loss for its fiscal first quarter, the three months ended Feb. 28.

The results beat the company’s December guidance, thanks to ticket prices that were better than expected.

The loss compares with a $37 million net profit in the previous year’s first quarter.

Revenue was essentially flat at $3.59 billion. Carnival Corp.’s net revenue yield, a key metric for cruise companies that measures revenue generated per unit of available accommodations, fell 2.1%.

At the same time, operating expenses rose 1.9%, to $3.51 billion, driven by increased spending on advertising. Fuel prices declined 3.4%, to $654 per metric ton.

CEO Arnold Donald said first-quarter results exceeded the company’s December guidance because ticket prices were higherArnoldDonald than expected for Carnival Cruise Lines and the company’s European cruise brands, and due to the timing of certain expenses.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, Carnival Corp. expects that net revenue yield will fall 3% to 4% compared with the prior year.

The company also anticipates an increase in net cruise costs per available lower berth day (excluding fuel) of up to 3.5% because of higher selling and administrative costs.