
NCL Holdings forecasts ‘strong demand so long as it’s safe’



Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings announced a collaboration to “develop enhanced cruise health and safety standards in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic,” according to a press release.
The companies have asked Governor Mike Leavitt and Dr Scott Gottlieb to serve as co-chairs of a newly formed group of experts called the “Healthy Sail Panel.”
The panel is tasked with collaboratively developing recommendations for cruise lines to advance their public health response to COVID-19, improve safety, and achieve readiness for the safe resumption of operations, according to a press release.
The expert panel has been working for nearly a month and will offer its initial recommendations by the end of August.
The cruise lines said its work will be “open source,” and could be freely adopted by any company or industry that would benefit from the group’s scientific and medical insights.
“This unprecedented disease requires us to develop unprecedented standards in health and safety,” said Richard D. Fain, chairman and CEO of Royal Caribbean Group. “Bringing aboard these respected experts to guide us forward demonstrates our commitment to protecting our guests, our crews and the communities we visit.”
“We compete for the vacationing consumer’s business every day, but we never compete on health and safety standards,” said Frank Del Rio, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. “While the cruise industry has always had rigorous health standards, the unique challenges posed by COVID-19 provide an opportunity to raise the bar even higher.”
Fain and Del Rio said they initiated the panel to assure the plans they will submit to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other regulators apply the best available public health, science and engineering insights. The work of the panel will be shared with the entire industry and regulators.
“In convening the Healthy Sail Panel, we sought the participation of a diverse group of leading experts in areas of science and public health that are directly relevant to the considerations listed by the No Sail Order,” said Governor Leavitt. “We view our work as a profoundly important public health effort. The health and safety of passengers, crew, and the communities that cruise ships visit will be the principal focus of this project.”
Dr Gottlieb said, “We know that the public health issues that must be addressed are complex, and in some areas, tackling them will require novel approaches. Our goal in assembling this team of leading experts was to develop best practices that can improve safety and provide a roadmap for reducing the risks of COVID-19.”
The panel is co-chaired by Governor Leavitt, former Secretary of the U.S. Department Health and Human Services (HHS), and Dr Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The panel’s members are globally recognized experts from various disciplines, including public health, infectious disease, biosecurity, hospitality and maritime operations.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) said that consumers are booking cruises to far-flung destinations in 2021, with Japan and Dubai among the top itineraries, along with several world cruise segments.
NCLH CEO Frank Del Rio said during the company’s earnings call that for its Oceania and Regent brands, demand for those itineraries in the first and second quarters of next year indicates that people will be willing to take long-haul flights.
“And so, this notion that people aren’t going to want to cruise to faraway places or exotic destinations, what we’re seeing is defying that,” he said. “So we’re not seeing any particular area of strength other than these Japanese itineraries, these world cruise segments that are sold out, literally.”
Del Rio also said during the call that he anticipates it would take about six months to resume service across its entire, three-brand fleet.
“The return to service of a phased approach of roughly five vessels per month is what we believe we operationally could handle in terms of bringing back the ships from cold lay-up, including re-crewing the vessels etc.,” Del Rio said. “Given that we have 28 vessels if you bring back an average of five vessels a month, it’s going to take about six months to get all ships back operating.”
During the earnings call, Del Rio said that timeline assumes that the itineraries those ships would operate are available.
“So the six-month ramp-up assumes more than anything else our operational capability to ramp up and that the ports are open,” he said.
Del Rio said that consumer demand is not a concern.
“We believe consumer demand and the bookings that follow are based on our ability to market, travel agents being back open again, the whole industry being back in operation as opposed to sitting idle,” he said. “There is pent-up demand, let’s not forget that. People only talk about the negative, but the fact that the industry has been shut down now over four months, there’ll be pent-up demand. People will want to cruise again.”
He also acknowledged that it will take time for cruising to come back to where it had been.
“We just have to be patient,” he said, adding that “no one is more impatient than me. But I recognize that this is going to be a recovery effort that’s going to take multiple quarters, perhaps multiple years to get back to the good old days of 2019.”
$211M loss in the first quarter
NCLH reported an expected loss of $211.3 million for the first quarter of 2020, compared with income of $181.8 million one year prior. Revenue decreased 11.2%, to $1.2 billion, compared to $1.4 billion in 2019, for the quarter ended March 31.
NCLH said it had “taken decisive action to significantly strengthen our financial position” in response to the Covid-19 global pandemic, including the company’s $2.4 billion capital raise, which Del Rio said positions the line “to weather an unlikely scenario of over 18 months of suspended voyages.”
“Our guests continue to demonstrate their desire for cruise vacations,” Del Rio said. “And we continue to experience demand for voyages further in the future across our three brands.”
NCLH reported “significant softness in near-term demand and an elevated rate of cancellations for existing bookings.”
But the company also said there “continues to be demand for cruise vacations, particularly beginning in the fourth quarter 2020 accelerating through 2021.”
The company reported that slightly more than half of its guests booked on cancelled sailings had requested cash refunds instead of future cruise credits.
NCLH said that it had begun developing a comprehensive and multifaceted strategy to enhance its health and safety protocols, including “enhanced screenings, upgraded cleaning and disinfection protocols and plans for social distancing.”
NCLH said it had furloughed approximately 20% of its shoreside workforce through July 31.