Tag Archives: growth forecast

NCLH and Royal Caribbean on Steepest Growth Curve to 2033

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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has set an aggressive growth course to 2033, increasing its estimated annual passenger capacity from about 2.8 million at the start of 2025 to more than 4.2 million by 2033, a 50 percent increase or approximately 5.5 percent each year, according to the 2025 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

Royal Caribbean Group will grow its capacity from an estimated 8.5 million to 10.8 million guests, for a 27 percent increase over the 2025-2033 time period, or 3 percent per year.

MSC Cruises, including Explora Journeys, is closely behind Royal Caribbean’s growth curve, going from a 4.2 million passenger capacity at the start of the year to 5.2 million in 2033, and a 25 percent increase, or less than 3 percent per year.

Carnival Corporation will have the most modest growth over the time period, based on its current orderbook, going from an annual passenger capacity of 12.6 million at the start of 2025 to 13.9 million in 2033, for a 10 percent increase, or about 1.1 percent per year.

And while Carnival Corporation remains the largest company with a market share of 31.8 percent, based on its existing brands and fleets, the single largest brand by 2033 will be Royal Caribbean International with a market share of 18 percent and 24.6 per cent for the group as a whole.

MSC will have a market share of 11.8 percent and NCLH 9.7 percent.

The 2025 Cruise Industry News Annual Report is available in digital and printed formats. Order today by clicking here.

Modest Growth Forecast for UK Market

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Celebrity cruise in Southampton photo credit Spacejunkie2 (Flickr)

The UK market has had to absorb additional capacity amounting to 316,000 more passengers, coming out of the pandemic in 2022 and 2023, according to the 2023 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

The capacity growth was driven by P&O Cruises’ introducing two new ships in short order, the Iona and Arvia, boosting the brand’s capacity from just short of 550,000 in 2019, the last typical operating year, to nearly 800,000 in 2023.

The other major operator in the UK market is Marella Cruises, which will see its capacity grow from approximately 407,000 in 2023 to 440,000 by 2024. It remains at that level, barring any more ship introductions, and maintaining its position as the second-largest brand in the UK.

Thus, the national cruise supply is forecast to see little growth from 2023 to 2029, only increasing from approximately 1.6 million to 1.8 million passengers over the time period.

The P&O and Marella brands typically target different market segments, with P&O in the premium segment and Marella in the more price-conscious so-called budget segment.

Cunard Line is also based in Britain, but also markets its capacity in other countries, such as the United States, Australia, Germany and Japan.

Other more typical British brands include Fred. Olsen, Saga and newcomer Ambassador Cruises, with the latter taking up the slack where Cruise and Maritime have been.

As the second largest national cruise market in Europe, Princess and MSC also have ships dedicated to the UK market and other European and North American cruise lines market.