Iata: ‘Widespread use’ of vouchers will accelerate cash burn

Iata: ‘Widespread use’ of vouchers will accelerate cash burn

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has highlighted how the extensive use of refund vouchers will accelerate cash burn for airlines.

The association warned that the “widespread use” of vouchers in Europe is “one of the difficulties airlines will be facing as they are slowly moving towards restarting their operations”.

With the grounding of fleets in mid-March, as the pandemic crisis began to hit revenues, airlines opted to provide vouchers to passengers rather than immediate refunds.

“This proved useful in slowing down their cash burn and helped prevent bankruptcies,” reported Iata Economics in its latest Chart of the Week.

“However, airlines’ liability to transport these passengers was only deferred but did not disappear.

“A month after the easing of travel restrictions on intra-EU routes, we can already observe that passengers have used a large number of vouchers to pay for their travel.

“This means that airlines now incur the cost of transporting these passengers – against no or limited new revenues.

“Whilst the issuance of vouchers helped decelerate cash burn a few weeks ago, their use will now accelerate cash burn in the coming months.”

Iata also said the booking behaviour of passengers has changed “dramatically”, with 41% of global travellers booking up to three days before travel in June, compared to 18% last year.

“This makes it difficult for airlines to plan and optimise their schedules, crew and fleet,” said the association.

In April, Alexandre de Juniac, Iata’s director-general and chief executive, said airlines owed $35 billion for cancelled flights, so the use of refund vouchers would buy the industry “vital time to breathe”.

Last week, the Iata Economics chart showed how intra-Europe routes were leading the initial recovery in international flights after border restrictions were eased.

Most passengers were travelling to visit friends and family or going on holiday, rather than going on business trips.

DOT orders airlines to pay out refunds

DOT orders airlines to pay out refunds
Photo Credit: Oliver Le Moal/Shutterstock

The Transportation Department on Friday issued an enforcement notice, telling airlines that they remain obligated to pay out refunds for flights that they have cancelled.

The order was prompted by an increase in complaints from ticketed passengers who have been denied refunds, the DOT said. Airlines instead are often giving travel vouchers.

“The longstanding obligation of carriers to provide refunds for flights that carriers cancel or significantly delay does not cease when the flight disruptions are outside of the carrier’s control,” the DOT said in the order. “The focus is not on whether the flight disruptions are within or outside the carrier’s control, but rather on the fact that the cancellation is through no fault of the passenger.”

The unprecedented schedule cuts airlines have made in response to the Covid-19 crisis has left the airline industry with a $35 billion refund liability worldwide, according to a recent IATA estimate.

With airlines already struggling due to enormous losses in revenue, IATA has been lobbying governments to suspend refund requirements. Thus far Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Colombia have issued favourable rulings for airlines.

Airlines have also acted individually to make refunds more challenging to obtain. Some have stopped processing them entirely while many others are making it difficult for customers to find information on applying for refunds. In the U.S., United recently altered its refund process so that international ticket holders will have to wait a year to get repaid for a flight cancelled by the airline.

In addition, 33 airlines (as of April 3) have unilaterally suspended refunds through the GDSs or ARC’s Interactive Agent Reporting system, forcing travel advisors to deal directly with the carrier.

Meanwhile, the sheer volume of refund transactions facing airlines that are still processing them in the GDS has compelled ARC to delay its weekly remittance schedule. ARC will now turn over refunds to agencies 10 days after the Sunday end of each business week, rather than five. That decision, said ARC’s managing director of airline services Chuck Fischer, was prompted by the fact that with current refund volumes, many airlines simply can’t go through their procedures fast enough to meet the five-day schedule.

Fischer said ARC doesn’t like that some airlines have cut off GDS refund processing, “but we can’t stop them from doing that.”

IATA, which oversees agent channel billing and settlement for most of the world other than the U.S., has no such reluctance. In an open letter to travel agents Thursday, IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said that the best solution right now for airlines and agents alike is for governments to suspend refund requirements.

“This would remove the pressure that is currently on agents to issue cash refunds at a time when airlines are making decisions based on their own need to preserve cash,” he wrote.

The DOT’s enforcement notice pushes back against such airline efforts. The department stated that it considers any contract of carriage provision by an airline that denies refunds for cancellations or significant schedule changes to be a regulatory violation. (The DOT does not specifically define “significant schedule change.” A DOT spokesperson said it is determined on a case-by-case basis.) The notice applies to both U.S. and foreign carriers that operate in the U.S.

The department said that for now, it will hold off on enforcement action against airlines that have provided travel vouchers in lieu of refunds to travellers with cancelled flights, but only if they meet three conditions:

• Carriers must contact passengers to tell them they have an option for a refund.

• They must update contacts of carriage to make refund rights clear.

• They must brief all relevant personnel on the circumstances in which refunds should be made.

Coronavirus: Slump in-demand set to cost airlines almost $30bn

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A slump in demand due to the coronavirus outbreak is set to cost the global airline industry $29.3 billion in lost revenue this year.

The bulk of the revenue loss – $27.8 billion – will hit carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, as Iata warned that 2020 would be a “very tough” year for the sector.

An estimated $12.8 billion will be lost in the Chinese domestic market alone with those outside the region expected to lose $1.5 billion in revenue, the airline trade body calculated.

The total forecast drop in demand of 4.7% would wipe out expected growth this year, resulting in a 0.6% contraction in passenger demand for the year.

This would represent the first overall fall in demand in more than a decade.

The estimated impact of coronavirus assumes that the centre of the public health emergency remains in China.

If it spreads more widely to Asia-Pacific markets then impacts on airlines from other regions would be larger, according to Iata.

The estimates are based on a scenario where coronavirus has a similar impact on demand as was experienced during the SARS outbreak in 2003.

“That was characterised by a six-month period with a sharp decline followed by an equally quick recovery,” Iata said.

“It is premature to estimate what this revenue loss will mean for global profitability. We don’t yet know exactly how the outbreak will develop and whether it will follow the same profile as SARS or not.

“Governments will use fiscal and monetary policy to try to offset the adverse economic impacts. Some relief may be seen in lower fuel prices for some airlines, depending on how fuel costs have been hedged.”

Iata director general and chief executive Alexandre de Juniac said: “These are challenging times for the global air transport industry. Stopping the spread of the virus is the top priority.

“Airlines are following the guidance of the World Health Organisation (WHO) and other public health authorities to keep passengers safe, the world connected, and the virus contained.

“The sharp downturn in demand as a result of COVID-19 (coronavirus) will have a financial impact on airlines – severe for those particularly exposed to the China market.

“We estimate that global traffic will be reduced by 4.7% by the virus, which could more than offset the growth we previously forecast and cause the first overall decline in demand since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. And that scenario would translate into lost passenger revenues of $29.3 billion.

“Airlines are making difficult decisions to cut capacity and in some cases routes. Lower fuel costs will help offset some of the lost revenue. This will be a very tough year for airlines.”

De Juniac called on governments to provide support. He said: “We have learned a lot from previous outbreaks, and that is reflected in the International Health Regulations (IHR). Governments need to follow these consistently.”

He added: “Airlines and governments are in this together. We have a public health emergency and we must try everything to keep it from becoming an economic crisis.”

Iata medical advisor Dr David Powell advised: “If you are sick, don’t travel.

“If you have flu-like symptoms, wear a mask and see a doctor. And when you travel wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face.

“Observing these simple measures should keep flying safely for all.”