Learning from RCCL’s cruise line partnerships

By Tom Stieghorst
*InsightForming partnerships to operate cruise lines is a tricky business that can have hard-to-predict consequences.

Take, for example, two cruise lines that Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCCL) got involved with in Europe.

One, Spain’s Pullmantur, has been a qualified disaster. As the economy in Spain soured over the past decade, Pullmantur’s results worsened. Because RCCL had acquired Pullmantur outright in 2006, it had to accept the subsidiary’s losses as its own on profit or loss statements.

Last year, RCCL took a $414 million writedown of Pullmantur’s assets. The only positive has been Pullmatur’s growing business in Latin America.*TomStieghorst

The other cruise line Royal took an interest in is Germany’s TUI. It remains 50/50 partners in TUI with TUI AG, which means it can’t incorporate either losses or profits directly in its bottom line.

In this case, it wishes it could. Unlike Spain, the German economy has mostly been strong and TUI has been highly profitable.

“TUI Cruises has been a very solid performer,” RCCL Chairman and CEO Richard Fain said in a recent conference call with Wall Street analysts. “I dearly wish they were included in our yield stats because it would make them look very good.”

Royal Caribbean reported $18.8 million of “other income” in a third quarter in which it earned $490.2 million. Most of that came from TUI, CFO Jason Liberty said.

The exact structure of how cruise line partnerships are formed is worth keeping in mind as both Royal Caribbean and Carnival Corp. negotiate joint ventures in China to further their interests in that key country.

The devil is in the details, as they say. It should be interesting to see what the details are if and when these Chinese ventures are finalized.

Fuel efficiency and floating on air

By Tom Stieghorst
*InsightIt’s funny how visions of the future can be both wrong and right.

I had that thought after viewing a museum exhibit of designs by modernist Norman Bel Geddes, including one for a cruise ship.

Bel Geddes’ big idea was streamlining and in the 1930s, he turned out everything from vacuum cleaners to passenger buses with that teardrop profile meant to increase speed. His cruise liner — with room for 2,600 passengers — is a thing of beauty, although it looks as much like a submarine as a surface ship. The exhibit included side views showing how wind eddies swirled around the superstructure of the conventional ships of the time.*TomStieghorst

Today, however, it isn’t wind resistance that is the focus of cruise industry streamlining, but water resistance. And the object is no longer to be the fastest across the Atlantic, but to cut fuel costs.

That accounts for the bulbous projection at the bow of every cruise ship, an innovation that pushes water quietly aside and improves efficiency. Cruise ships in recent years have been slathered in silicon compounds or other coatings to make them shed marine slime and slip through the water more easily.

The newest streamlining idea is set to debut on the Quantum of the Seas, the first full test of an air lubrication system that uses microbubbles to provide a cushion for the ship to ride on.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCCL) has tested the system in a small way on the Celebrity Reflection, but installed a full system on the Quantum as part of the ship’s technology emphasis.

The idea is to form and inject tiny air bubbles below the hull that reduce drag as the ship plows forward. Ironically for Bel Geddes, air is the instrument to provide extra cruise ship streamlining.

Other firms have tried this before, but Royal Caribbean has developed its own method of making the bubbles so that they’re small enough to be effective. It involves first heating the bubbles to shrink them, and then cooling them to prevent them from turning to steam as they hit seawater.

“We’re not only riding on air, we’re riding on air-conditioned air,” quipped RCCL Chairman Richard Fain, on a recent tour of Quantum in Germany.

The system — which only works when a ship is traveling at speed — could knock 7% to 9% off of propulsion costs, even taking into account the energy needed for heating and cooling, Fain said.

Royal Caribbean gets leg up in China with Ctrip deal

By Tom Stieghorst
Celebrity CenturyThe sale of the Celebrity Century to the Chinese travel agency Ctrip opens a second way for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCCL) to develop a passenger business in the world’s most populous country.

Starting next year, the 19-year-old Century will sail for a new venture owned by Ctrip, a Shanghai-based online travel agency (OTA) that also supplies travel products and services.

In a statement, Ctrip said an affiliate will own the Century and that the affiliate will form a joint venture with RCCL to manage the ship’s operations. The companies have a memorandum of understanding to set up the venture “and potentially broaden the relationship,” the statement said.

While RCCL will recognize a $20 million loss on the ship’s disposal, company Chairman Richard Fain nevertheless called the sale “an excellent business opportunity for both Royal Caribbean and Ctrip” that will generate “strong value for both companies’ shareholders.”

RCCL had previously decided to get rid of the Century, the last remaining ship in Celebrity’s Century class. At one point, it appeared bound for a French cruise line owned by RCCL that operates two other former Celebrity ships.

RCCL already is marketing several ships to Chinese passengers, including the Mariner and Voyager of the Seas. It is raising the ante in the Chinese market next year by deploying its newest ship, Quantum of the Seas, for year-round sailings from Shanghai.

Having the Century in China at the same time will offer a lower price point on a smaller ship for the new joint venture, which will take delivery of the ship in April after it completes its scheduled cruises for Celebrity.

Matt Jacob, an analyst with ITG Research in New York, said the sale of the ship into a less-developed market makes sense at this point in its life.

“Royal Caribbean is looking at this deal as allocating its ships in the best possible manner,” Jacobs said. “They believe the Chinese market represents a great opportunity, and this is another way to get exposure to that market.”

As Europe has evolved over the past decade, older tonnage sent there is competing against new ships. But that’s not the case in China.

“There’s an opportunity to take a ship that might not be viewed as competitive in the more saturated markets and position it for the Chinese market where the requirements and desires of that clientele at this stage are not as developed or as stringent,” Jacob said.

RCCL did not disclose the sale price, but one analyst estimated it at $157 million.

If the price was at or above the market for such ships, disposal at a loss could still be a win, Jacob said. “Although they’re taking an accounting loss, this I imagine is the highest-yielding use they have for that ship at this time.”

Ctrip offers RCCL established connections to Chinese consumers. Founded in 1999, it provides hotel reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and corporate travel management in China.

In 2012, Priceline invested $500 million in Ctrip, calling it the “clear leader in online travel in China.” The OTA offers an English-language version of its website to promote U.S. travel to China and is already active in selling cruises to Chinese passengers.

In announcing the acquisition of the Century, Min Fan, vice chairman and president of Ctrip, said, “As the largest cruise agency in China, Ctrip has sent over 120,000 guests to cruise trips so far and acquired more than 10% of market share in China.”

Addressing this deal specifically, he added, “Ctrip will capitalize on our strong brand, large customer base and superior service quality, as well as our partner’s extensive cruise operating experience to generate great value to our customers and shareholders.”

The Ctrip deal resembles one RCCL formed with German travel conglomerate TUI AG in 2009. The two companies formed TUI Cruises after TUI acquired the Celebrity Galaxy, another Century-class ship, to cater to the growing German market under the name Mein Schiff (My Ship).

TUI Cruises later acquired the Celebrity Mercury and this year took delivery of its first newbuild, the 100,000-gross-ton Mein Schiff 3.

RCCL’s deal with Ctrip is in the early stages and hasn’t gone beyond an agreement to jointly manage the Century. An RCCL spokeswoman said the companies are still in discussion about what else their cooperative venture might entail.

Peter Whelpton, a consultant in Gainesville, Fla., and a former RCCL executive, said that in his experience, Chinese companies prefer becoming partners with U.S. businesses rather than selling them services.

Whelpton said he was part of a group that raised money in China to start a cruise line there. “Everything we attempted to do in China, we were told, ‘We’ll be your partner,’” he recalled.

Whelpton added that RCCL is pursuing a familiar model by selling the aging Century to a foreign buyer. “They started the same way with Pullmantur,” he said.

The Century will continue its scheduled sailings through the March 22 itinerary. A final 15-night trip from Dubai to Rome is being changed to a 14-night sailing ending in Singapore. From there, the ship will be renovated and altered for the Chinese market before redeployment later in the year.