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Cruise Industry 10-Year Timeline: 50+ Million Guests, 20% Growth

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Cruise Industry 10-Year Timeline: 50+ Million Guests, 20% Growth

The global cruise business is on course to grow at least 20 per cent between 2026 and 2036, with big new ships driving growth to an estimated 50 million guests, according to the 2026 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

That is compared to just over 23 million guests 10 years ago, and an estimated 39 million this year.

The bulk of the growth is coming from the industry’s major players that have numerous new big ships on order, including Carnival Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean International, MSC Cruise, Norwegian Cruise Line and Disney Cruise Line.

Together, these five brands have a combined 34 ships on order, amounting to just over 150,000 new berths.

The most growth is coming from MSC, with 10 newbuilds set to debut. The new ships from the industry’s fastest-growing will include more World-class vessels built in France, and an entirely new class of vessel set to be constructed in Germany at Meyer Werft.

Norwegian Cruise Line is close behind with eight ships on order, adding more than 36,000 berths through 2037 as the brand continues to scale its large-ship fleet at Fincantieri in Italy.

Royal Caribbean International has six newbuilds scheduled, building on the success of its Icon-class platform with additional vessels from both Meyer Turku in Finland and Chantiers de l’Atlantique in France.

Carnival Cruise Line has five ships on order totalling nearly 30,000 berths, with new tonnage coming from both Meyer Werft and Fincantieri.

Disney Cruise Line, meanwhile, is accelerating its own expansion with five ships set to debut through 2031, more than doubling its current fleet size and extending its reach into new global markets.

The combined orderbook across all cruise lines stands at 78 ocean ships valued at approximately $80 billion, reflecting the industry’s confidence in sustained long-term demand.

NCLH: Measured Cruise Capacity Growth at 28%

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A key cornerstone of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ long-term strategy is measured capacity growth, said Harry Sommer, president and CEO, speaking on the company’s year-end and fourth quarter earnings call.

He pointed to the company’s newbuild pipeline of five ships and its 2023 to 2028 capacity growth, which represents 28 more supply for the company’s trio of brands in Norwegian, Oceania and Regent.

That averages out to a compound annual growth rate of five percent, he advised.

“Historically, capacity growth has led to outsized revenue and EBITDA growth and we expect this capacity growth to be no different and deliver meaningful top and bottom line growth,” Sommer noted.

“We believe that these measured capacity additions will enable us to further enhance our long-term profitability and continue to significantly strengthen our balance sheet while providing guests new and innovative experiences,” he said.

“We continue to experience strong and resilient customer demand across all three of our brands. The strong momentum we saw in 2023 has continued into 2024 with an all-time high booked position and pricing buoyed by strong wave season demand. This has led to some of the best booking weeks in the company history, which began with successful Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions.

“In general, we continue to see healthy demand across all markets, brands and products.”

Carnival Cruise Line is set to embark on its “largest-ever” period of growth in its 50-year history.

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Following the launch of Carnival Luminosa earlier this year, the brand will add five more ships to its fleet over the next two years, the next being the delivery of two Excel-class vessels, Carnival Celebration to Miami and Carnival Jubilee to Texas.


As part of the expansion plan, Carnival will also introduce a new concept – “Carnival Fun Italian Style” – with two additional ships from sister brand Costa Cruises, starting with Carnival Venezia next spring, sailing year-round from New York, and Carnival Firenze in 2024 out of from Long Beach.

“Carnival Luminosa is a testament to our ongoing commitment to Australia, and the start of a period of growth unlike any other in Carnival’s 50-year history,” said Christine Duffy, president of Carnival Cruise Line.

“Having a Brisbane-based ship has been a goal of ours for quite some time, so we are so happy that they are the first market globally to experience the big, bright, fun that this ship has to offer and so excited to give our guests more Carnival ships and itinerary options to sail over the next two years.”

Luminosa – which arrived at its homeport of Brisbane on Monday (31 October) – will sail on its first cruise on 6 November and operate 28 sailings through 13 April 2023, visiting 60 ports across Australia, New Zealand, and the South Pacific.

The sailings will support Carnival Australia’s anticipated $165 million contribution to the Queensland economy this year.